Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4)

University of Iowa professor and pollster David Redlawsk kicked off the week's presidential campaign news in Iowa when he announced the latest Hawkeye Poll results.  On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Iowa with 28.9% to Sen. Barack Obama's 26.6%, former Sen. John Edwards's 20%, Gov. Bill Richardson's 7.2%, and Sen. Joe Biden's 5.2%.

On the Republican side, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 36.2%, head and shoulders above Rudy Giuliani's 13.1%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee's 12.8%, former Sen. Fred Thompson's 11.4%, and Sen. John McCain's 6%.

The Hawkeye Poll's methodology has been the subject of some controversy, but in an interview with Iowa Independent, Redlawsk defended himself against his critics.  New American Research Group polls from the beginning of the week show somewhat different results, but the candidate rankings in the two polls vary only slightly.  Consensus remains that Romney is the Iowa Republican frontrunner, and any of the top three Democrats could win the Democratic caucuses.

Another poll, released by the National Wildlife Federation, showed that 69% of Iowa hunters and fishermen believe global warming is occurring.  66% of that group also believe that conservation is at least as important as gun rights.

Tuesday night's debate between the Democratic candidates in Philadelphia, PA, made for a relatively quiet week on the Democratic side in Iowa.  Obama visited Cedar Rapids Monday for a speech on Social Security and an appearance in front of young people for a forum sponsored by MTV News and MySpace.  In Washington, DC, Wednesday, Clinton announced her endorsement from AFSCME, a union often touted as influential in the Iowa Caucuses.  Thursday, Edwards announced his first major Iowa television ad buy of the 2008 campaign.   Obama and Clinton had announced new TV ads Sunday and Monday, respectively.  Most of the Democratic field did not return to Iowa until the end of the week.

On the Republican side, things quieted down after last week's Republican Party fundraising dinner, where Huckabee received most of the buzz.  Romney was the only major candidate to appear in Iowa later in the week.  In Marshalltown, he was videotaped telling a crowd that "you probably don't have a lot of immigrants legally" in Iowa.

Next week promises to be more exciting, as the last major cattle-call of Democratic candidates in Iowa, the annual Jefferson Jackson fundraising dinner, happens over the weekend.  In the lead-up to the event, candidates will struggle to build crowds and show strength as the national press corps flies back into town.

I have been writing a weekly roundup of presidential campaign news in Iowa to be crossposted in a few places for the last couple of months, and I figured I might as well start crossposting them here as well.  I live in Iowa, I'm managing editor of Iowa Independent, and I also blog at Chase Martyn (On Display).



Display:


Thanksgiving and Christmas will be interesting (none / 0)

With the Jan 3. date you can't take a day off if you want to win.  Yet being too intrusive could hurt.

If I were a canidate I wouldn't be in the state or on the air on Thanksgiving, the day before Christmas, or on Christmas day.  I'd make a little bit of a fuss about it and tell the people of Iowa they deserve a break.  I think some voters would appreciate that.


by dpANDREWS on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 05:43:04 PM EST

Re: Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4) (none / 0)

What's your opinion on this Caucus Notes in Rural Iowa
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/2/2165 7/4792#commenttop

Do you believe his assessment is on target?


by prisonbreak on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 05:54:32 PM EST

Re: Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4) (2.00 / 1)

I question how much one can glean from a specific call list, because field staff cut lists in a lot of different ways that they don't always tell their volunteers about, so the sample could be skewed.

That said, recent poll results do seem to illustrate that among "likeliest" caucus goers, Edwards is ahead.  Among "less likely" caucus goers, Clinton does better.  Whether that really translates to "high turnout = Clinton victory," I'm skeptical, because there are a lot of other moving parts, and voter screen designations of "likely" or "less likely" are often inaccurate when it comes to caucus polls.


-- Iowa Independent
by chase martyn on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 06:12:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4) (none / 0)

Hi Chase,

I am curious to know if you have any opinion about the impact of the debate last week on the dynamic of the race in Iowa.

Are you seeing any change in the dynamic of the race on the ground as a result of the debate ?

So I guess your posts would be on sundays .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 06:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4) (none / 0)

Lori,

I think that if the debate made any impression in Iowa, it was a good one for both Obama and Edwards.

That said, although Iowans may have been somewhat more likely to watch it than people in other states, it still wasn't a major television event. We will only know the true impact after the debate finds its way into stump speeches and local press coverage.


-- Iowa Independent
by chase martyn on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 07:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

lori, you may be pleased to hear (none / 0)

that I don't think many people in the Des Moines area were watching. October 30 is trick-or-treat night here.


See if Saxby Chambliss is helping you.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 07:43:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: lori, you may be pleased to hear (none / 0)

good , that was a painful debate for me to have to sit through.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 07:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for the post (none / 0)

I appreciate the info.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 09:51:46 AM EST


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